If you were to poll football fans today, nine times out of ten, the answer to “Who is the best football manager?” would likely be Pep Guardiola. There’s no denying that Guardiola is a great coach and manager. However, I believe it’s easy to argue that he’s not the best; many might criticize me for this opinion, but I think they are the ones who are misguided, and here’s why.

I like to judge coaches in terms of expected value—given their resources and initial endowments, what outcomes did they achieve? This is very much an economist’s way of looking at things. Essentially, it’s about the value-added relative to what was provided.

Consider José Mourinho’s time at Porto and Inter Milan. He didn’t inherit a generational team or have vast financial capabilities. Yet, he performed far above what was reasonably expected, winning the Champions League with both clubs. Similarly, someone like Xabi Alonso at Bayer Leverkusen did the unthinkable with a small budget and a team he inherited in a relegation fight. Eighteen months later, he won the Bundesliga—an impossible achievement.

These are examples of coaches who performed above expectations. In contrast, Pep Guardiola is performing to expectations excellently, and his teams are highly consistent. At Barcelona, he inherited one of the greatest teams ever, winning multiple Champions League titles and La Liga trophies. This is what you’d expect with such a talented squad.

When he moved to Bayern Munich, I feel it was probably his least impressive stint—though his “worst” still meant winning almost every domestic competition for three years. However, Bayern already dominated domestically and had just won the Champions League before his arrival. Under Guardiola, they didn’t replicate European success, and after he left, they won the Champions League again.

At Manchester City, Guardiola inherited a top-three Premier League team and has spent over a billion dollars on new acquisitions. While City has been the best team in England over the past decade, they’ve only won the Champions League once, despite having arguably the best squad in Europe for the past five years. His lack of European success is a significant factor in why I believe he’s not the best manager ever.

One of Guardiola’s strengths is his ability to get players to adapt to his system. Unlike teams like Paris Saint-Germain, which had some of the world’s best attackers but failed to capitalize due to a lack of cohesive strategy and internal politics, Guardiola’s teams play with a clear philosophy.

In summary, Guardiola consistently performs to expectations but not necessarily above them. He inherits top teams and keeps them at the top, backed by substantial financial resources. Given the investments and talent at his disposal, one might expect more European success, similar to what Real Madrid has achieved over the past decade. The fact that this hasn’t materialized is why I argue that while Guardiola is a great manager, he isn’t the best.